〔牛三點算好〕260118

其實牛三都冇乜嘢特別好講,因為格局只係「大漲少回」,若果牛市未有轉熊市嘅趨勢,大方向都應該唔會特別點變。

今日個市受制於33000呢個大位。估唔到一千點話咁快就升到,上篇文章我有提及大市農曆新年嘅目標係33000,結果前日就已經破咗呢個位。不過,一個禮拜一千點係急咗啲,所以禮拜尾個市震咗一震,要抖抖氣。今日開市大行已經開始做嘢,沽貨獲利,晏晝有資金流入股市趁低吸納,不過臨收市大行再震多次倉。大市收報32654,跌304點,成交達1877億。

不過,美元持續疲弱,美元指數咋日跌穿90,令到人民幣延續近日強勢,兌美元跌穿6.4大位之後大步向前,一度見低過6.32嘅水位。美元弱勢持續,冇錯對港股有一定嘅強心針作用,短期內資金將續流入股票市場內,加上將有利於內地企業股價嘅表現。但係,大家唔好當聯儲局老襯,美元「家吓」跌到咁「甘」,股市又升得咁勇,咁好加息嘅機會,聯儲局絕對唔會放過,唔通等到市道轉差先至加咩~下次息口嘅決定喺香港時間二月一日凌晨三點公布,似乎近排美國經濟好得咁全面,聯儲局唔加息,可以話係錯過咗一次黃金加息嘅機會。

除咗加息嘅決定,美國亦都會公布多項經濟數據,內地亦都會公布最新PMI嘅數字。嚟緊個禮拜將會係環球股市第一個嘅障礙,呢個跨欄會大步躝過,仰或是「劉翔跨欄」呢?

若果聯儲局加息,而個市稍為回調,可能將會為散戶提供上尾班車嘅機會。上呢班尾班車,要注意幾事項:一、please don’t go all-in. 二、唔好諗住追落後,基本因素差,個市一震倉,弱股分分鐘少漲大回。三、買之前做吓功課,一定要放止蝕。市道大好嘅時候,麻煩都要落翻個止賺價,買嘅時候預先自動定好,咁就買得安心,唔怕畏高,基金佬震倉都唔會怕佢地有米!

短期未來嘅強股都應該都唔洗多講喇,騰訊同埋中資金融股料將繼續跑出,重磅友邦都將會造好。防守性啲嘅,可以吼本地銀行股,就算美國加息都唔洗咁怯,當然眾多銀行股中,中銀香港將為首選,不過想再保守啲嘅,高息嘅大笨象同埋恆生都係好嘅選擇,不過兩者現價未免太高。

中資金融股嘅話,心血少啲嘅可以入少少內銀,當中我會揀建行先,工行為second choice,始終以業績嚟計,建行為中工建嘅頭位。不過同樣地,宜家嘅作價太高,所以制唔過。心血多啲嘅就可以吼準平保,睇吓基金佬會唔會震佢倉,再加上嚟緊若果如無意外聯儲局加息,基金佬理應會出貨,屆時可以喺85元嘅臨界落翻注細嘅即日鮮,都冇話唔得。

總言之,牛三永遠都係投資者最大嘅心理測試,波幅大嘅時候要臨危不亂,作出正確嘅決定並唔容易,唔係手板眼見功夫。最近見到某銀行分析師

近排大台嘅電視劇,我特別欣賞入面引用嘅一句說話,好適合警惕依家嘅投資者:

「萬貫家財三頓飯,千戶房屋一張床。」

錢係搵唔哂嘅,若果覺得今次入市會帶嚟太多心理壓力嘅,咁思想不如放開啲,諗吓點樣開心地過年仲好喇~

金融小弟

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The global stock rally goes on, and the Hong Kong market is a major participant. Though the main index retreated close to 1% yesterday, it has only been one week since my prediction of the index to arrive at 1000 points higher before CNY.

Such soar in the HSI is not unjustifiable. Feeble USD performances have spurred capital inflow into the Hong Kong market, as the USD index slumped beneath 90. Chinese companies look set to benefit from the recent rise in RMB's position against USD. However, such showings from the USD will be matched with concerns over interest rate rise. Excellent economy, unprecedented unemployment levels, soaring stocks, accompanied with dimming dollars: it would be a golden opportunity missed for the Fed to remain on track towards their rate target if interest rate is decided to stay put. Nonetheless, the decision will be imminently publicized next week 0300 HKT.

Advice seekers, here are some takeaways for the near future. Prioritize fundamentals. Prevent going all-in at all times. Make use of limit and two-way orders. All these will provide guidance to success with reduced risk.

Stocks of recommendation should be clear to everyone by now. It remains likely that the HSI heavyweights and Chinese financial institutions will continue to lead the way.

Bullish markets are always an EQ-tester. If you find yourself lacking of a clear mind, maybe it is time to think about how to celebrate CNY instead!

@thefinanceyoungster